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Quantum Pings Library
The gambler's fallacy
- Type
- Concept
- Publisher
- Psychology
- Source
- Wikipedia ↗
The belief that after a streak of one outcome, the opposite is "due" — the arithmetic twin of reading meaning into runs of events.
After a coin comes up heads five times, the gambler's fallacy whispers that tails is due — that the sequence owes a change. It is a mistake about probability, studied since Laplace, and it is one of the most robust findings in the psychology of judgment.
The fallacy matters to this shelf because it is the arithmetic twin of reading meaning into runs. The same mind that expects the universe to balance itself out will also find a repeating number, or a run of related events, and feel that something is being arranged. Both are the brain treating chance as if it had intentions.
The meaning
The fallacy shows how intuitive our sense of balance is — the mind expects the universe to even things out.
The skeptic
It is the cleanest demonstration that our sense of how chance "should" behave is simply wrong, and it powers a great deal of coincidence-thinking.
About the source
The mistaken belief that a random sequence "owes" a change after a run — that past outcomes shift future odds.
Key takeaways
- The false belief that a random sequence owes a change after a run.
- Studied since Laplace; a classic of probability judgment.
- The arithmetic twin of seeing meaning in streaks.