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Regression to the mean
- Type
- Concept
- By
- Term identified by Francis Galton
- Publisher
- Statistics
- Source
- Wikipedia ↗
Why the "miraculous" recovery after a low point is often just statistics, not a sign: extreme events are followed by average ones.
Francis Galton noticed in the nineteenth century that extreme observations tend to be followed by more ordinary ones: unusually tall parents have children closer to average, and a spectacular score is usually followed by a modest one. The phenomenon is called regression to the mean, and it is one of the great unappreciated sources of apparent meaning.
It explains a surprising amount of what people call signs. The "miraculous" recovery after the lowest point, the "answer" that arrives after the worst day — these are often just the world returning to average, with the meaning supplied by the observer. Regression is invisible, which is why it keeps producing coincidences no one intended.
The meaning
Acknowledging regression explains some cases but is often stretched to explain cases it does not fit.
The skeptic
Regression to the mean is one of the most powerful and least understood coincidence-generators: the world returns to average, and we credit the intervention.
About the source
The statistical phenomenon Galton identified in the 19th century: extreme observations tend to be followed by more ordinary ones.
Key takeaways
- Extreme events tend to be followed by ordinary ones.
- Identified by Francis Galton in the 19th century.
- Explains many apparent "signs" and miraculous turnarounds.